Nearshoring in Mexico: Historic Opportunity or Closing Window?

By: Armando Rubio | LYPmagazine

In a world shaken by geopolitical tensions, logistical disruptions, and trade wars, Mexico may be in the right place at the right time. The nearshoring strategy—relocating production chains closer to key markets—has placed the country under global scrutiny. With its geographic proximity to the U.S., a robust network of trade agreements, and competitive labor, Mexico stands out as a strategic option for companies seeking to cut costs, delivery times, and exposure to global risks.

Throughout 2024 and into 2025, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) related to nearshoring has reached historic levels. More than 150 projects have taken root in Mexico, with capital flows estimated at over $35 billion USD. States like Nuevo León, Chihuahua, and Coahuila are leading the way, driven by the automotive, electronics, and light manufacturing sectors.

This is no coincidence. In January 2025, the federal government issued the Nearshoring Decree, offering tax incentives to foreign companies relocating operations to Mexico. The private sector welcomed the move, viewing it as a timely attempt to capitalize on a shifting global trade landscape increasingly distanced from Asia—especially China—due to tariff conflicts and rising logistics costs.

But the optimism has its limits. Analysts warn that Mexico is currently capturing less than 10% of its potential in this global trend. The challenges are structural and persistent: electricity and water shortages, security issues in industrial zones, and growing institutional mistrust, fueled by controversial reforms such as changes to the judicial system—criticized by agencies like Moody’s for dampening investor confidence.

Mexico’s national approach also lacks cohesion. While some states have demonstrated leadership, the country still needs a unified industrial strategy that aligns federal initiatives with private-sector ambitions and international cooperation.

Meanwhile, other countries—Costa Rica, Panama, and the Dominican Republic—are advancing faster and more strategically. The risk is clear: Mexico could lose the race to become North America’s logistics hub.

According to estimates by BCG, if key bottlenecks are addressed, Mexico could attract an additional $60 billion USD in nearshoring investments by 2026. But this will require urgent action: scaling up infrastructure, improving workforce readiness, strengthening the rule of law, and establishing long-term economic governance.

Today, nearshoring is more than a trend—it’s an imperative. In a volatile global economy, resilient supply chains are essential to regional growth. Mexico is on the map. But without coordinated vision and decisive action, it may lose one of the most important economic opportunities of the decade.

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CEO del medio de comunicación LYPmultimedios y GreenInc.